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31.
Long‐Term Trends of Nutrients and Sediment from the Nontidal Chesapeake Watershed: An Assessment of Progress by River and Season 下载免费PDF全文
Qian Zhang Damian C. Brady Walter R. Boynton William P. Ball 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2015,51(6):1534-1555
To assess historical loads of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and suspended sediment (SS) from the nontidal Chesapeake Bay watershed (NTCBW), we analyzed decadal seasonal trends of flow‐normalized loads at the fall‐line of nine major rivers that account for >90% of NTCBW flow. Evaluations of loads by season revealed N, P, and SS load magnitudes have been highest in January‐March and lowest in July‐September, but the temporal trends have followed similar decadal‐scale patterns in all seasons, with notable exceptions. Generally, total N (TN) load has dropped since the late 1980s, but particulate nutrients and SS have risen since the mid‐1990s. The majority of these rises were from Susquehanna River and relate to diminished net trapping at the Conowingo Reservoir. Substantial rises in SS were also observed, however, in other rivers. Moreover, the summed rise in particulate P load from other rivers is of similar magnitude as from Susquehanna. Dissolved nutrient loads have dropped in the upland (Piedmont and above) rivers, but risen in two small rivers in the Coastal Plain affected by lagged groundwater input. In addition, analysis of fractional contributions revealed consistent N trends across the upland watersheds. Finally, total N:total P ratios have declined in most rivers, suggesting the potential for changes in nutrient limitation. Overall, this integrated study of historical data highlights the value of maintaining long‐term monitoring at multiple watershed locations. 相似文献
32.
A Modeling System to Assess Land Cover Land Use Change Effects on SAV Habitat in the Mobile Bay Estuary 下载免费PDF全文
Maurice G. Estes Jr. Mohammad Z. Al‐Hamdan Jean T. Ellis Chaeli Judd Dana Woodruff Ronald M. Thom Dale Quattrochi Brian Watson Hugo Rodriguez Hoyt Johnson III Tom Herder 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2015,51(2):513-536
Estuarine ecosystems are largely influenced by watersheds directly connected to them. In the Mobile Bay, Alabama watersheds we examined the effect of land cover and land use (LCLU) changes on discharge rate, water properties, and submerged aquatic vegetation, including freshwater macrophytes and seagrasses, throughout the estuary. LCLU scenarios from 1948, 1992, 2001, and 2030 were used to influence watershed and hydrodynamic models and evaluate the impact of LCLU change on shallow aquatic ecosystems. Overall, our modeling results found that LCLU changes increased freshwater flows into Mobile Bay altering temperature, salinity, and total suspended sediments (TSS). Increased urban land uses coupled with decreased agricultural/pasture lands reduced TSS in the water column. However, increased urbanization or agricultural/pasture land coupled with decreased forest land resulted in higher TSS concentrations. Higher sediment loads were usually strongly correlated with higher TSS levels, except in areas where a large extent of wetlands retained sediment discharged during rainfall events. The modeling results indicated improved water clarity in the shallow aquatic regions of Mississippi Sound and degraded water clarity in the Wolf Bay estuary. This integrated modeling approach will provide new knowledge and tools for coastal resource managers to manage shallow aquatic habitats that provide critical ecosystem services. 相似文献
33.
Development of the Spatial Rainfall Generator (SRGEN) for the Agricultural Policy/Environmental Extender Model 下载免费PDF全文
Jaehak Jeong Jimmy R. Williams Colleen G. Rossi Robin A. Taylor Xiuying Wang William E. Fox 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2015,51(1):154-167
Accurate spatial representation of climatic patterns is often a challenge in modeling biophysical processes at the watershed scale, especially where the representation of a spatial gradient in rainfall is not sufficiently captured by the number of weather stations. The spatial rainfall generator (SRGEN) is developed as an extension of the “weather generator” (WXGEN), a component of the Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender (APEX) model. SRGEN generates spatially distributed daily rainfall using monthly weather statistics available at multiple locations in a watershed. The spatial rainfall generator as incorporated in APEX is tested on the Cowhouse watershed (1,178 km2) in central Texas. The watershed presented a significant spatial rainfall gradient of 2.9 mm/km in the lateral (north‐south) directions based on four rainfall gages. A comparative analysis between SRGEN and WXGEN indicates that SRGEN performs well (PBIAS = 2.40%). Good results were obtained from APEX for streamflow (NSE = 0.99, PBIAS = 8.34%) and NO3‐N and soluble P loads (PBIAS ≈ 6.00% for each, respectively). However, APEX underpredicted sediment yield and organic N and P loads (PBIAS: 24.75‐27.90%) with SRGEN, although its uncertainty in output was lower than WXGEN results (PBIAS: ?13.02 to ?46.13%). The overall improvement achieved in rainfall generation by SRGEN is demonstrated to be effective in the improving model performance on flow and water quality output. 相似文献
34.
David J. Rosa John C. Clausen Michael E. Dietz 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2015,51(3):746-757
The Storm Water Management Model was used to simulate runoff and nutrient export from a low impact development (LID) watershed and a watershed using traditional runoff controls. Predictions were compared to observed values. Uncalibrated simulations underpredicted weekly runoff volume and average peak flow rates from the multiple subcatchment LID watershed by over 80%; the single subcatchment traditional watershed had better predictions. Saturated hydraulic conductivity, Manning's n for swales, and initial soil moisture deficit were sensitive parameters. After calibration, prediction of total weekly runoff volume for the LID and traditional watersheds improved to within 12 and 5% of observed values, respectively. For the validation period, predicted total weekly runoff volumes for the LID and traditional watersheds were within 6 and 2% of observed values, respectively. Water quality simulation was less successful, Nash–Sutcliffe coefficients >0.5 for both calibration and validation periods were only achieved for prediction of total nitrogen export from the LID watershed. Simulation of a 100‐year, 24‐h storm resulted in a runoff coefficient of 0.46 for the LID watershed and 0.59 for the traditional watershed. Results suggest either calibration is needed to improve predictions for LID watersheds or expanded look‐up tables for Green–Ampt infiltration parameter values that account for compaction of urban soil and antecedent conditions are needed. 相似文献
35.
The energy sector in Poland is the source of 81% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Poland, among other European Union countries, occupies a leading position with regard to coal consumption. Polish energy sector actively participates in efforts to reduce GHG emissions to the atmosphere, through a gradual decrease of the share of coal in the fuel mix and development of renewable energy sources. All evidence which completes the knowledge about issues related to GHG emissions is a valuable source of information. The article presents the results of modeling of GHG emissions which are generated by the energy sector in Poland. For a better understanding of the quantitative relationship between total consumption of primary energy and greenhouse gas emission, multiple stepwise regression model was applied. The modeling results of CO2 emissions demonstrate a high relationship (0.97) with the hard coal consumption variable. Adjustment coefficient of the model to actual data is high and equal to 95%. The backward step regression model, in the case of CH4 emission, indicated the presence of hard coal (0.66), peat and fuel wood (0.34), solid waste fuels, as well as other sources (− 0.64) as the most important variables. The adjusted coefficient is suitable and equals R2 = 0.90. For N2O emission modeling the obtained coefficient of determination is low and equal to 43%. A significant variable influencing the amount of N2O emission is the peat and wood fuel consumption. 相似文献
36.
Alicja Kolasa-Wiecek 《环境科学学报(英文版)》2015,27(4):47-54
The energy sector in Poland is the source of 81% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Poland, among other European Union countries, occupies a leading position with regard to coal consumption. Polish energy sector actively participates in efforts to reduce GHG emissions to the atmosphere, through a gradual decrease of the share of coal in the fuel mix and development of renewable energy sources. All evidence which completes the knowledge about issues related to GHG emissions is a valuable source of information. The article presents the results of modeling of GHG emissions which are generated by the energy sector in Poland. For a better understanding of the quantitative relationship between total consumption of primary energy and greenhouse gas emission, multiple stepwise regression model was applied. The modeling results of CO2 emissions demonstrate a high relationship (0.97) with the hard coal consumption variable. Adjustment coefficient of the model to actual data is high and equal to 95%. The backward step regression model, in the case of CH4 emission, indicated the presence of hard coal (0.66), peat and fuel wood (0.34), solid waste fuels, as well as other sources (-0.64) as the most important variables. The adjusted coefficient is suitable and equals R2 = 0.90. For N2O emission modeling the obtained coefficient of determination is low and equal to 43%. A significant variable influencing the amount of N2O emission is the peat and wood fuel consumption. 相似文献
37.
Cara E. Brook James P. Herrera Cortni Borgerson Emma C. Fuller Pascal Andriamahazoarivosoa B. J. Rodolph Rasolofoniaina J. L. Rado Ravoavy Randrianasolo Z. R. Eli Rakotondrafarasata Hervet J. Randriamady Andrew P. Dobson Christopher D. Golden 《Conservation biology》2019,33(1):99-111
Subsistence hunting presents a conservation challenge by which biodiversity preservation must be balanced with safeguarding of human livelihoods. Globally, subsistence hunting threatens primate populations, including Madagascar's endemic lemurs. We used population viability analysis to assess the sustainability of lemur hunting in Makira Natural Park, Madagascar. We identified trends in seasonal hunting of 11 Makira lemur species from household interview data, estimated local lemur densities in populations adjacent to focal villages via transect surveys, and quantified extinction vulnerability for these populations based on species-specific demographic parameters and empirically derived hunting rates. We compared stage-based Lefkovitch with periodic Leslie matrices to evaluate the impact of regional dispersal on persistence trajectories and explored the consequences of perturbations to the timing of peak hunting relative to the lemur birth pulse, under assumptions of density-dependent reproductive compensation. Lemur hunting peaked during the fruit-abundant wet season (March–June). Estimated local lemur densities were roughly inverse to body size across our study area. Life-history modeling indicated that hunting most severely threatened the species with the largest bodies (i.e., Hapalemur occidentalis, Avahi laniger, Daubentonia madagascariensis, and Indri indi), characterized by late-age reproductive onsets and long interbirth intervals. In model simulations, lemur dispersal within a regional metapopulation buffered extinction threats when a majority of local sites supported growth rates above the replacement level but drove regional extirpations when most local sites were overharvested. Hunt simulations were most detrimental when timed to overlap lemur births (a reality for D. madagascariensis and I. indri). In sum, Makira lemurs were overharvested. Regional extirpations, which may contribute to broad-scale extinctions, will be likely if current hunting rates persist. Cessation of anthropogenic lemur harvest is a conservation priority, and development programs are needed to help communities switch from wildlife consumption to domestic protein alternatives. 相似文献
38.
建立了便携式顶空/气相色谱-质谱法测定硬质聚氨酯泡沫和组合聚醚中一氟三氯甲烷(CFC-11)、二氟二氯甲烷(CFC-12)、二氟一氯甲烷(HCFC-22)及一氟二氯乙烷(HCFC-141b)的定性分析方法,系统考察了色谱柱、顶空体系、顶空温度和顶空时间对测定结果的影响。结果表明,DB-WAX色谱柱对目标物质的分离效果最好,顶空温度为50℃、顶空时间为10 min条件下,目标物质的检测灵敏度最高。在优化条件下,硬质聚氨酯泡沫取样体积为1 cm3时,4种目标物的方法检出限为0.6~0.8 μg;组合聚醚取样量为10 mg时,4种目标物的方法检出限为0.5~0.6 μg。该方法具有较高的灵敏度,定性准确,适用于实际样品的现场快速定性分析。 相似文献
39.
Jessica M. Driscoll Lauren E. Hay Melanie K. Vanderhoof Roland J. Viger 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2020,56(1):16-29
This study explores the viability of using simulated monthly runoff as a proxy for landscape‐scale surface‐depression storage processes simulated by the United States Geological Survey’s National Hydrologic Model (NHM) infrastructure across the conterminous United States (CONUS). Two different temporal resolution model codes (daily and monthly) were run in the NHM with the same spatial discretization. Simulated values of daily surface‐depression storage (treated as a decimal fraction of maximum volume) as computed by the daily Precipitation‐Runoff Modeling System (NHM‐PRMS) and normalized runoff (0 to 1) as computed by the Monthly Water Balance Model (NHM‐MWBM) were aggregated to monthly and annual values for each hydrologic response unit (HRU) in the CONUS geospatial fabric (HRU; n = 109,951) and analyzed using Spearman’s rank correlation test. Correlations between simulated runoff and surface‐depression storage aggregated to monthly and annual values were compared to identify where which time scale had relatively higher correlation values across the CONUS. Results show Spearman’s rank values >0.75 (highly correlated) for the monthly time scale in 28,279 HRUs (53.35%) compared to the annual time scale in 41,655 HRUs (78.58%). The geographic distribution of HRUs with highly correlated monthly values show areas where surface‐depression storage features are known to be common (e.g., Prairie Pothole Region, Florida). 相似文献
40.
利用2017年嘉善善西超级站臭氧(O3)及其前体物(NOx和VOCs)以及气象因子(温度、湿度、风速)逐小时数据,分析了2017年全年NOx和O3的变化特征以及春季(4—5月)、夏季(7—8月)NOx和气象因子对O3生成的影响,利用O3生成潜势(OFP)评估了VOCs大气化学反应活性,并通过潜在源区贡献(PSCF)和浓度权重轨迹(CWT)方法分析了嘉善春、夏季O3潜在源区贡献特征。研究发现:O3日变化特征为单峰结构,NOx为弱双峰结构。O3浓度在3—9月较高,春、夏季O3浓度峰值分别出现在15:00和14:00,春、夏季的NOx、O3日变化与2017年全年日变化趋势基本一致。NOx对O3存在滴定作用,且低湿高温有利于O3浓度的升高。春、夏季O3生成潜势贡献均表现为烯烃 > 芳香烃 > 烷烃,由于烯烃光化学活性较高,夏季烯烃浓度升高导致其贡献较春季增长约18.1个百分点,且夏季VOCs平均最大O3增量反应活性高于春季。PSCF和CWT分析结果表明,嘉善春季的潜在源区主要为本地、西南方向和东南方向,夏季的潜在源区主要为本地、西北方向、西南方向以及东南方向。 相似文献